Pakistan, a 'Failed State'?

From the New York Times

Yesterday as the American News was just beginning to pick up the Buzz of what was happening in Pakistan, my friend Gashwin called. He was sitting in the airport in his native land Inja waiting for his flight back stateside. I asked him his thoughts and he said that Pakistan has pretty much been a failed state for sometime.

I suppose it was the notion of 'Failed State' that really grabbed my attention. Now as the dust begins(?) to settle all eyes are own the regime (not the government, governments in my American schema and parlance governments are agents of the people) and their Nuclear stockpile. Interstingly enough Reuters posted a story about Pakistan's failed state status.

"In early 2005, a joint security assessment by the CIA and the U.S. National Intelligence Council predicted Pakistan would become "a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and complete Talibanization" by 2015.

Following Bhutto's death in Rawalpindi on Thursday, some experts believe the time frame on that assessment may now have been brought forward..."

I emphasized Talibanization. I suppose Taliban has become more than movement into an actual form of recognized Government.

The American government is trying to allay the world's fears about the safety of the Nuclear stockpile, but it is no open secret that members of the Military structure which is in power in Pakistan are rogues out of the control of Musharraf and are sympathetic to the Islamists. Bhutto said as much and more in an e-mail that was shared with the world only after her death. Even now Al Qaeda - bedfellows of the Taliban are claiming victory in her assisination. Do we remember, as the Reuter's article points out, the Khan Scandal in 2004 when the head of Pakistan's Nuclear Programmes admitted on Television to selling top secret nuclear information to Iran and Libya amongst other regional powers?

Going back to that conversation with Gashwin yesterday...

I joked about India just taking over and being done with it, but he said his Motherland wouldn't do that as it would be more trouble than it's worth, his truth-speak seemed to transcended that of the usual Indian/Pakistani bitterness.

But surely Pakistan's neighbour and cheif 'rival' would be concerened with these goings on? According to the Economic Times, they are, India is moving to 'High Alert.' As C. Raja Mohan at NewIndiPress.com put it:

New Delhi’s accumulated historical experience of dealing with Islamabad can no longer be a guide to India’s future engagement with Pakistan whose organising principles are now being shaken to the core.India has dealt with strong military dictators and vacillating civilian leaders in Pakistan. It has never faced a rudderless Pakistan that is in the danger of losing control to extremist forces....


The government is taking stock.

From the Times Article:

NEW DELHI: With a civil war-like situation developing in Pakistan following the assassination of former prime minister and PPP leader Benazir Bhutto, the political leadership met here on Friday to take stock of the implications of an unstable neighbourhood. An all-party meeting chaired by prime minister Manmohan Singh was briefed about the steps that are being taken by the Centre to contain the adverse fallout of the happenings in Pakistan on India. National security advisor M K Narayanan told the meeting that the forces have already been put on high alert. The security leadership was also in touch with chief ministers of the border states. The participants were assured that the Centre would do all that was required for meeting the challenge....

And Mr. Mohan "With the higher judiciary behind the bars, and the liberal intelligentsia smarting at Musharraf’s misrule, the [mainline] Army has no credible political allies in Pakistan. As the [mainline] Army and political parties lose ground, the real winners from Bhutto’s assassination are Pakistan’s [Islamist] extremists."

And we all know what that means.... not good.

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